Tampa Bay Home Values
What Is My House Worth in Tampa Bay?
26,780 Stellar MLS closed sales across 13 cities, and what the median does not tell you about your address.
Quick answer
Single-family closed-sale medians across 13 Tampa Bay cities ran from $300,000 to $609,000 over the twelve months ending October 2026 — $460,000 in Tampa, $390,000 in Brandon, $427,000 in Valrico and $609,000 in Lithia, drawn from 26,780 Stellar MLS closed sales.
That is the market, not your house. Your number comes from closed comparable sales on your street in the last 60 to 90 days, adjusted for condition, lot, roof age and insurability. A median is where the conversation starts.
What is the median home value in each Tampa Bay city?
These are closed sales, not asking prices, over the twelve months ending October 2026, pulled from Stellar MLS through the Bridge API. Every row is a complete dataset for that city rather than a sample, and lease records are excluded. The days column is the median days on market for the single-family sales in that city, which is the single most useful column here because it tells you how much pricing tolerance the market is giving sellers.
| City | Closed sales | Single-family median | Median days on market | All property types |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa | 8,951 | $460,000 | 27 days | $430,000 |
| St. Petersburg | 6,019 | $430,000 | 32 days | $432,250 |
| Brandon | 870 | $390,000 | 22 days | $370,000 |
| Riverview | 1,727 | $392,500 | 39 days | $375,000 |
| Valrico | 783 | $427,000 | 28 days | $420,000 |
| Lithia | 508 | $609,000 | 27 days | $566,500 |
| Plant City | 992 | $365,000 | 32 days | $350,000 |
| Seffner | 283 | $369,000 | 24 days | $362,650 |
| Apollo Beach | 805 | $534,995 | 69 days | $489,999 |
| Ruskin | 625 | $330,000 | 47 days | $319,990 |
| Sun City Center | 845 | $300,000 | 49 days | $250,000 |
| Clearwater | 2,496 | $425,000 | 27 days | $330,000 |
| Wesley Chapel | 1,876 | $485,210 | 37 days | $430,000 |
The “all property types” column is usually lower than the single-family column, and that gap is not a discount — it is townhomes and condominiums pulling the number down. If you own a single-family home, the middle column is your market and the right column is a mix you are not competing in.
How accurate is a Zestimate on my house?
Honest answer: more accurate than people think on listed homes, less accurate than people think on off-market homes, and structurally blind to the five things that most affect a Tampa Bay sale. An automated valuation model is a statistical estimate built from public records and prior sales. It has never been inside your house.
| Method | Who produces it | Cost to you | Sees inside the home? | Best used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Online estimate (AVM) | An algorithm, from public records | Free | No | A rough bracket, and tracking a trend over time |
| Comparative market analysis | A licensed agent, from MLS closed sales | Free | Yes, if the agent walks it | Setting a list price and a net sheet |
| Lender appraisal | A state-licensed appraiser, ordered by the lender | Typically paid by the buyer | Yes | What the loan will actually be written against |
| Cash-buyer offer | An investor pricing their own risk and resale | Free | Usually a walkthrough | A speed-and-certainty floor, not a market value |
| Property Appraiser assessed value | The county, for tax purposes | Free | No | Nothing related to market value — it is a tax figure |
The last row is the one that costs people money. A Save Our Homes capped assessed value on a long-held Florida homestead can be far below market, and sellers anchor to it. It is a tax number. It is not what a buyer will pay.
What actually sets the value of a specific house?
In the order they move the number, for a Tampa Bay single-family home in 2026.
Location down to the street, not the city
Two Valrico addresses a mile apart can sit in different school zones, different flood zones and different HOA or CDD structures. A city median is an average of all of them, which means it describes none of them.
Living area and how it is laid out
Price per square foot is the crudest useful tool there is, and buyers do not actually pay by the foot. A 2,400 square foot plan with four real bedrooms and a three-way split appraises differently than 2,400 feet with a bonus room counted generously.
Condition against what else is on the market right now
Your home is not being compared to its former self. It is being compared to the renovated one the buyer toured an hour earlier. Original kitchens and 20-year-old roofs get priced, and in Florida the roof age gets priced twice because it drives the buyer's insurance quote.
Insurability
Roof age, a past claim, a prior sinkhole or water loss, polybutylene plumbing, and a four-point inspection outcome all affect what a buyer can get covered and at what premium. In this market that is a value input, not a footnote.
What has actually closed in the last 60 to 90 days
Not what is listed, not what is pending, and not what your neighbor turned down. Appraisers work from closed sales, and so does any pricing opinion worth acting on.
How do I get a real number on my house?
Start with the free automated estimate so you have a bracket, then get a pricing opinion from somebody who will walk the house. I will bring closed comparable sales from the last 60 to 90 days in your immediate area — including the homes that beat yours, because those are the ones that tell you the truth — plus what is actively competing with you right now and how long it is taking to go under contract.
Then the part most valuations skip: the net. A price is not a number until you subtract what it costs to get there, which is why I pair every pricing opinion with a line-by-line Hillsborough County cost-to-sell breakdown and a realistic timeline for how long the sale will take.
Useful background before you price
If your sale will involve financing, the Florida home appraisal guide explains what the appraiser is actually measuring. For neighborhood-level context, see the market pages for Valrico and Riverview, or how I price and position a listing in Valrico and Brandon.
What is your address worth?
Send the address and I will come back with closed comparable sales, a price range and a net sheet. No obligation, and if the answer is “do not sell yet,” that is the answer you will get. Call or text (813) 733-7907. Barrett Henry, Broker Associate, REMAX Collective, license BK3313308, with 23+ years of real estate experience. You can also use the free home valuation tool.
General market information, not an appraisal and not legal, tax or accounting advice. Median figures describe closed sales over a past window and are not a valuation of any individual property. Consult a licensed appraiser, your attorney and your CPA before relying on any number here.
Tampa Bay home value questions
What is my house worth in Tampa Bay?
Across 13 Tampa Bay cities, single-family closed-sale medians for the twelve months ending October 2026 ran from $300,000 to $609,000 — $460,000 in Tampa, $390,000 in Brandon, $427,000 in Valrico and $609,000 in Lithia, from 26,780 Stellar MLS closed sales. A median tells you the market, not your house. Your number comes from closed comparable sales on your street in the last 60 to 90 days, adjusted for your condition, your lot and your roof age.
How accurate is a Zestimate or an online home value estimate?
Automated valuation models are far more accurate on homes that are actively listed, because the asking price is an input, than on off-market homes where the model is guessing. Zillow publishes a median error rate for the Zestimate and the off-market figure has run in the range of roughly 7 percent — check Zillow's own Zestimate page for the current number, since it moves. On a $420,000 house a 7 percent miss is around $29,000 in either direction, and because that figure is a median, half of all homes are off by more than it. AVMs cannot see your renovation, your roof age, your view, your flood zone or the fact that the comparable sale three doors down was a family transfer.
What is the difference between a CMA and an appraisal?
A comparative market analysis is a licensed agent's pricing opinion built from recent closed comparable sales, current competing inventory and local absorption. It is free, it is fast, and it is forward-looking because it accounts for what you are competing against today. An appraisal is an independent licensed appraiser's opinion of value, ordered and paid for by a lender, built almost entirely from closed sales. Lenders lend against the appraisal, so a CMA that ignores what will appraise is not doing you a favor.
Why is my neighbor's sale price not my price?
Because a sale price is the end of a negotiation, not a measurement. You cannot see from the outside whether that number included a seller-paid rate buydown, a repair credit, new appliances, a leaseback, or a buyer paying over market because they needed that school zone. Closed price alone is one data point. What it took to get there is the rest of the story, and that part is in the MLS record and in the agent-to-agent conversation, not on the public portals.
Does a home valuation obligate me to list?
No. A pricing opinion is information, and plenty of the ones I run end with me telling someone that waiting, renting or fixing one specific thing first is the better move. If the number says do not sell right now, that is the number I will give you. You are not signing anything to find out.
Sources
Every number and rule on this page traces to one of the following, checked October 2026. Statutes and lender guidelines change, so verify against the current version before you rely on it.
Stellar MLS closed sales via the Bridge API, twelve months ending October 2026
Every median price, closed-sale count and days-on-market figure in the city table. Fully paginated complete datasets rather than samples, with lease records excluded. Covers 26,780 closed sales across 13 cities.
Zillow, Zestimate accuracy disclosures
The on-market versus off-market median error rate comparison. Quoted as an approximate range rather than a fixed figure because Zillow revises the published number; verify on Zillow's Zestimate page before relying on it.
National Association of REALTORS, 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers
The finding that 91 percent of sellers used an agent and that for-sale-by-owner transactions fell to 5 percent of sales, an all-time low.